Live Now Pay Later

Like so many Australians we have had a leaning towards Real Estate in advancing our financial position. As young home owners we would improve our humble home and over time pay down as much of the mortgage as we could, then sell and repeat the process. We were never scared of putting in the hard work ourselves, that was part of the fun. Although we have never lost money in property, some delivered greater gains while others weren’t so good.

I recall a pretty little weatherboard cottage in the leafy Canberra suburb of Yarralumla. The cottage was built in the 1950’s and was virtually in original condition. At the time, we felt the property was just out of reach and the cost of bringing the property up to a modern desirable home was just too much of a stretch.This wasn’t the only property that we would arrive at the same decision. Today these properties would be worth a fortune and my conservative approach could have potentially been a hindrance. Chances are we could have secured these properties if we pushed the envelope. But better safe than sorry as they say.

Being conservative when interest rates were at 17% was understandable. Financial discipline in not living outside your means was a must if you wanted to get ahead . Credit cards weren’t as easy to get as they are today and if you did have one it was usually for emergencies with a limit of $1000.00 or so. I recall telling my mother I was borrowing $55,000 to buy a house – she was horrified that someone would go into so much debt. Very few of my friends had new cars. There was Lay-by instead of After-Pay. Generally, it was” Pay now and Live later”.

Today it’s the reversal “Live now – Pay later”. Money is cheap, borrowing large sums is relatively affordable and so as human nature goes, we will always live to the upper limits of our means. Expectations also are higher, the first home that was once a simple 3 bedroom, 1 bathroom with an L-shaped lounge dining area has been replaced with four bedrooms, ensuite and a double garage.

I wonder whether today’s expectations have added to the apparent problem of housing affordability? We simply aren’t prepared to accept a lifestyle change or show financial discipline if it means having to make sacrifices.

Where we currently live, our suburb has, over time, become very sort after with the original homes being sold for huge amounts of money only to be demolished and replaced with new homes of grand modern designs. I believe the term for these changes to the demographic is “gentrification” and it’s part of the game of identifying the next real estate opportunity. 

So along with the gentrification of the area comes the Range Rovers, designer clothes, designer children and the designer dog which is usually a breed that ends in “oodle”.  There’s Labradoodles, Cadoodles, Moodles and the list goes on. In my neck of the woods it seems to go completely against the question of housing affordability or any question of affordability for that matter. Money doesn’t appear to be an obstacle.

I have no doubt that amongst our new found gentrified residents, some are very successful young new age entrepreneurs who are making some serious money. But for the most, keeping up with the Jones’s comes at a high price. A life based on material possessions isn’t the path to a happy life, rather a life of what must be many sleepless nights. The challenge could just be how long can you sustain the integrity of your house of cards.

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With commentary increasing on the level of “interest only” loans approaching maturity and reverting to principle and interest, must have some of the Range Rover set starting to get a little nervous particularly if property prices cool off and interest rates were to rise. Even if only marginally.

As in any cycle, things will at some point cool off and there will be a slow down. Many will have financially over extended themselves and will have little choice but to sell at a reduced price. With this comes opportunity for the savvy investor to buy well and be positioned for the next phase of the property cycle.

As Warren Buffett advises – avoid the herd mentality ” Be fearful when others are being greedy and greedy only when others are being fearful” – RD


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